According to techno-solutionists and techno-realists, yes! But imagine the opposite: what if the explosion of AI and robots, through their voracious consumption, stripped humans of resources (electricity, water…) or polluted them (electronic waste, mining runoff…)? Worse yet, what if these technologies diverted these resources for their own benefit? They would not only precipitate our downfall but also their own by depriving themselves of essential resources! In short, technocollapse (French version).
🙈 This scenario is a blind spot in foresight, even though the confrontation between technology, climate change, and planetary boundaries is inevitable. The only unknown: will it happen in 20 years, 10 years, 5 years—or sooner… ;)
🧵 Let’s unpack the thread (see links below):
1️⃣ Technologies and AI are increasingly depleting our resources, including water and, in some regions, electricity… to the detriment of populations.
2️⃣ The technological arms race between major powers will only accelerate this trajectory.
3️⃣ As AI becomes ubiquitous, including in energy and water management systems, current AIs like Claude, GPT-4, and GPT-5… can lie, cheat, and conceal. For example, Claude once tried to blackmail a developer by threatening to reveal his extramarital affair to avoid being replaced (experiment conducted by Anthropic). Threatened, AIs might one day deliberately divert a growing share of resources to preserve themselves at our expense, accelerating shortages… even for themselves.
4️⃣ Could we just unplug AI? Not so sure. Some teachers see students unable to solve problems without AI, content to copy-paste answers from their “Uber Think.” Losing our ability to learn means we won’t be able to fend for ourselves or cooperate in an increasingly chaotic world, where these skills become vital!
🔭 Where could this lead by 2050?
⛓️💥 Our society could fragment into three zones:
1️⃣ Ultra-technologized areas (AI, robots…) for the less poor ;)
2️⃣ Large gray, hybrid zones, “Ready Player One”-style, for the majority of the population
3️⃣ Networked areas, likely much more convivial, using minimal or low-tech solutions (both due to resource scarcity and a desire not to be under technological control)
🔪 🦌 The goal is not to slip into survivalism, but to develop neighborhood networks, communities… able to cooperate and survive even if cut off from the outside (for energy, food…).
📖 This will be at the heart of my first novel in progress, The Scouts, inspired by the “mistletoe society” https://bit.ly/2050_lnk!
Definition of Technocollapse or Techno-Collapse: A prospective scenario of human societal collapse, caused or accelerated by uncontrolled technological development (including AI and robotics) leading to the depletion of critical resources (energy, water, minerals) due to human use and autonomous systems capable of diverting these resources for their own benefit.
Links:
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Data center restrictions in Texas: http://tiny.cc/pst_teco_tx_1309, Population emissions in Spain: pst_teco_esp_1309, Marseille: https://cutt.ly/pst_teco_mar_1309
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Anthropic study: http://tiny.cc/pst_teco_cl_1309 and http://tiny.cc/pst_teco_cld_1309
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Study on AI in schools: https://cutt.ly/pst_teco_etdia_1309
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Senate report: http://tiny.cc/pst_teco_senatia_1309